Peter, of course speed is one of many factors involved in accidents. Road accident statistics show that the faster you go the more likely you are to crash and the faster you crash the more likely you are to die. I also agree that faster and heavier bikes will cause more damage (Kinetic Energy = (mass x velocity2) /2) – meaning that velocity is more of a factor than mass). My point, which perhaps was not very well made in the interests of time and space, was that things are a lot more complicated than speed alone. This is actually agreeing with your initial point that racing is inherently dangerous. I am just not sure that reducing capacity on the basis of one accident will change a lot in the future. Guys will always be pushing the limits wherever that limit might be and modern 2-strokes are plenty fast to cause damage.
Of course I would rather be hit by a Vespa than a lorry though I don’t suspect I would ever go to the IOM TT to watch Vespa racing for a week! This would certainly be an effective way to reduce serious accidents though. Had Marc been riding a smaller bike then there is the possibility that things would have been different in this case. My point was more of a general one than focusing on this specific incident. Indeed, none of the Irish guys killed over the last decade involved any spectators but it could easily have been different, particularly with Joey’s and John Donnan’s crashes,
Concentrating on the riders first. The problem is that these guys are travelling at well over the body’s tolerable limit for coping with rapid deceleration injuries. It doesn’t matter if you hit a pole at 190mph or 90mph, the result will be the same. In a University of California study of 4935 fatal motorcycle accidents in 2006 the median estimated speed at which the rider hit a stationary object was 21.5mph! In other words going from 21.5mph to 0mph rapidly commonly causes enough damage to kill someone. Intensive Care studies show that a motorcycle rider hitting a stationary object at over 20mph is at “high risk” of requiring ICU treatment. By how much should speed be reduced to make racing safer? How many would go to the TT if the big bikes were axed? Would manufacturers be happy with this etc?
Granted, my point about the Irish races was made specifically concerning riders. However, I would reinforce that in Irish Races or in accidents involving Irish riders over the last approx 10 years there have been 10 guys killed when riding 2-stroke or Classic machinery, and 7 on modern 4-strokes. If you also look at the Manx GP, which has a much bigger variety of racing than the TT, over the last 10 years there have been more fatal accidents involving 2 stroke and classic riders than the bigger bikes. Yet guys like McCallen and Hizzy got away with 140mph plus accidents at Quarry Bends because they slid up the road (on 250s), more due to luck than judgment. Of course this all seems obvious and deserved a slap head!
You have made the point about spectator safety. Looking back at Irish Road Races there have been unfortunate fatal accidents involving spectators in 1928, 1960 (2), 1977 and 1997. Marshals have been killed in 1932, 1961 and 2001. That seems pretty random and not exclusively due to modern 1000cc Superbikes. Statistics also show that pedestrians are likely to be seriously injured if they experience blunt force trauma being hit by a vehicle travelling at more than 20mph. Again there are many variables, like where the trauma is applied. How do you give spectators more time to get out of the way? Reducing speed and is an option but I suggest that at the TT when spectators are standing right beside the road this might be marginal. I agree it might have changed this particular incident but would it stop others in future that are likely to be at other sections of the course? What about making spectators stand further back, or stopping children/ elderly/ disabled people attending races or even banning the consumption of alcohol by spectators. All of these would ensure that spectators have good reaction times! Of course I am not advocating this and it would never happen. However, I think the saddest part and main contributor to this particular tragedy that we should focus on was the lack of communication, meaning that spectators were standing in a prohibited area, rather than the capacity of the bike involved.
As an aside. you have specifically mentioned the bumpiness of the Sulby Straight and that allowing bikes to go faster results in more accidents. I think that over the years about 5 riders have been killed around Sulby/Sulby Bridge, the last being in 1995. This obviously proves little and stats can be used in any way to back up a point but perhaps road improvements have made actually the Sulby Straight safer?
I agree that in general the Mountain course should be preserved but again where do you draw the line. Should the last rider off the mountain have to close the gate? The trouble with the TT circuit is that its dangerous everywhere. If you look at the tragic list of fatalities published elsewhere this will be confirmed. Certain places do appear more dangerous over the years than others eg Rhencullen, Bray Hill, May Hill, Alpine, 33rd. Should we concentrate on these areas for changes to be made. Most of us agree this is not what we’d like to see. As far as I can see this was also the first fatal accident at the 26th Milestone which reinforces that, on the Mountain Circuit, everywhere is dangerous.